Assignment #8

One recent article in the news that pertains to my topic was an OpEd by David Leonhardt in the New York Times. This article frames my research question in current political terms. It mentions how the tax increases of George H.W. Bush and Clinton were correlated with increased econmic growth during that period, while the George W. Bush tax cuts were correlated with a decrease in economic growth. While correlation does not equal causation, this phenomenon is one of the major pieces of evidence that back up my claim that higher top marginal top rates can be beneficial to economic growth.

One of the main topics of discussion in this piece was the discussion for support and criticisms for tax cuts. Obviously tax cuts are popular because in the short run, they put more money in people’s pockets and in the long run, they increase or sustain incentives to work which helps growth. One interesting criticism of tax cuts that I did not hear before, was that once someone hits a specific income target, they might stop or decrease working once they receive a tax cut. However, people say that now since marginal tax rates are at such historic lows (compared to a top rate of at least 70%), tax cuts/rises do not have as much of an effect on work incentives as they once did, since marginal rates are not as extreme. This is an arguement that could have some impact in my results. Now that I have read this article, I might want to create dummy variables for certain decades in which top marginal tax rates are relatively higher or lower in order to see if this work incentive rationale holds up, and has any effect on output.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/16/opinion/sunday/do-tax-cuts-lead-to-economic-growth.html?_r=1&hp

One comment

  1. Anna,

    This is a very interesting article. I almost would reject the fact that a tax increase would stimulate a period of higher growth! In this current election, there is so many negative arguments about the Obama Administration’s plan to increase taxes for the higher income bracket. It is argued that raising taxes on the wealthy will only slow down their economic investment. Your article says differently, which is very interesting! However, for your regression purposes I think that creating a dummy variable for some decades is a good idea. I also may need to consider that for my own topic. Good Luck!

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